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     หัวข้อ : พฤติกรรมของสายพันธุ์ SARS-CoV-2 ที่เกิดขึ้นใหม่อาจมีความอ่อนไหวต่อบริบททางภูมิคุ้มกัน
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 การศึกษาชี้ให้เห็นว่าพฤติกรรมของสายพันธุ์ SARS-CoV-2 ที่เกิดขึ้นใหม่อาจมีความอ่อนไหวต่อบริบททางภูมิคุ้มกันและประชากรศาสตร์ของตำแหน่งที่ตั้งของมัน ในการศึกษาล่าสุดที่โพสต์บน bioRxiv * นักวิจัยจำแนกความแตกต่างของความเร็ว ขนาด และระยะเวลาของการเปลี่ยน/คลื่นของตัวแปรโรคทางเดินหายใจเฉียบพลันรุนแรง 13 ชนิดจากไวรัสโคโรนา 2 (SARS-CoV-2) บาคาร่า

SARS-CoV-2 ยังคงพัฒนาอย่างต่อเนื่อง และการเปลี่ยนแปลงทั่วโลกไปสู่สายพันธุ์ใหม่ที่เกิดขึ้นใหม่อาจทำให้เกิดคลื่นการส่งสัญญาณใหม่ ข้อได้เปรียบในการคัดเลือกของแวเรียนต์ใหม่เหนือแวเรียนต์ที่มีอยู่อาจเกิดจากการติดเชื้อที่เพิ่มขึ้น (ผ่านการจับที่ปรับปรุงกับตัวรับเซลล์โฮสต์) และการต้านทานต่อแอนติบอดี ที่ทำให้ เป็นกลาง การติดเชื้อก่อนหน้านี้ที่มีสายพันธุ์ SARS-CoV-2 ที่แตกต่างกันสามารถให้ระดับการป้องกันที่แตกต่างกันสำหรับสายพันธุ์ใหม่ ผู้เขียนคาดการณ์ว่าประวัติของสายพันธุ์ที่ติดเชื้อและอัตราการฉีดวัคซีนอาจส่งผลต่ออัตราที่สายพันธุ์ใหม่สามารถแข่งขันกับสายพันธุ์ที่มีอยู่และกลายเป็นสายพันธุ์ที่โดดเด่น

เกี่ยวกับการศึกษา ในการศึกษาครั้งนี้ นักวิจัยได้ทดสอบสมมติฐานที่ระบุและระบุความแตกต่างของเวลาทั่วโลก ขนาด และความเร็วของการเปลี่ยนตัวแปร พวกเขาทำการวิเคราะห์ย้อนหลังของลำดับจีโนมของ SARS-CoV-2 ที่ส่งไปยังฐานข้อมูล Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) ระหว่างเดือนตุลาคม 2020 ถึงตุลาคม 2022

ข้อมูลสำหรับลำดับจีโนม SARS-CoV-2 มากกว่า 12.8 ล้านรายการได้รับจากที่เก็บ GISAID ผ่านขั้นตอนการวิเคราะห์จีโนมของไวรัสโคโรนาไวรัส 2019 (COVID-19) ลำดับถูกแบ่งตามตัวแปรตามระบบการตั้งชื่อ Pango ข้อมูลเกี่ยวกับผู้ป่วย COVID-19 ที่ยืนยันรายวันและผู้เสียชีวิตได้รับจากศูนย์วิทยาศาสตร์และวิศวกรรมระบบของ Johns Hopkins อายุ ความหนาแน่นของประชากร และข้อมูลของแต่ละสถานที่ (ประเทศ) สามารถเข้าถึงได้จาก WorldPop นักวิจัยได้เสนอแบบจำลองสำหรับสัดส่วนที่แตกต่างกันในช่วงเวลาสำหรับแต่ละสถานที่ โดยพิจารณาจากตัวแปรที่แข่งขันกันหลายตัว สำหรับการวิเคราะห์เบื้องต้น มีการพิจารณาถึง 13 หมวดหมู่สายเลือด Pango สำหรับแต่ละตำแหน่งทางภูมิศาสตร์จาก 215 ตำแหน่ง (ประเทศและภูมิภาคย่อย) คาสิโน

การวิเคราะห์เบื้องต้นไม่ได้พิจารณาการจัดกลุ่มสายเลือด Omicron Pango ที่เกิดขึ้นเนื่องจากข้อมูลไม่เพียงพอ ในการวิเคราะห์ย่อยของตัวแปรฉุกเฉินพิเศษ นักวิจัยจำแนกข้อมูลที่มีอยู่สำหรับสายพันธุ์ SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75, BQ.1 และ XBB/XBB.1 การวิเคราะห์การจัดกลุ่มแบบลำดับชั้นได้ดำเนินการเพื่อระบุลักษณะความคล้ายคลึงกันของตำแหน่งที่ตั้งในคลื่น Omicron สำหรับตำแหน่งที่ตั้ง 155 แห่งเท่านั้น

นักวิจัยได้รับแอตทริบิวต์ของสถานที่ เช่น ข้อมูลประชากร ภูมิประเทศทางคลินิกของโควิด-19 และนโยบายสาธารณะที่เกี่ยวข้อง เมื่อสัดส่วนของลำดับของตัวแปรที่กำหนดถึง 5% ในตำแหน่งใดๆ ก่อน พวกเขาระบุผู้รับมอบฉันทะ 2 รายสำหรับการแข่งขันตัวแปรเมื่อมีตัวแปรใหม่เกิดขึ้นในแต่ละตำแหน่ง: 1) จำนวนของตัวแปรที่หมุนเวียนร่วมกันด้วยความชุกขั้นต่ำ 5% และ 2) อัตราส่วนการแข่งขัน การเพิ่มขึ้นของเปอร์เซ็นต์สูงสุดในความชุกของตัวแปรที่มีอยู่

COVID-19 mRNA boosters กระตุ้นให้เกิดการตอบสนองทางภูมิคุ้มกันที่แข็งแกร่งแต่ไม่คงทนในผู้สูงอายุ

เปรียบเทียบอาการหลังติดเชื้อ COVID-19 สองปีหลังการติดเชื้อ SARS-CoV-2 สายพันธุ์ Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Gamma และ Mu มีความเกี่ยวข้องกับความชุกและความเร็วในการเปลี่ยนผ่านที่ต่ำกว่า ยกเว้นการเปลี่ยนผ่านของเบต้าในแอฟริกาใต้และการเปลี่ยนผ่านแกมมาในอเมริกาใต้ ตัวแปร Delta และ Omicron (BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2 และ BA.5) มีการเปลี่ยนแปลงอย่างรวดเร็ว แม้ว่าความชุกและความแพร่หลายของ Omicron BA.1 และ BA.1.1 ทั่วโลกจะมีความแปรปรวน

รุ่นอัลฟ่ามีการเปลี่ยนแปลงเล็กน้อยและช้าในอเมริกาใต้และแอฟริกาใต้เนื่องจากการแข่งขันที่หลากหลาย รุ่น Omicron BA.1.1 มีสถานะที่แข็งแกร่งในอเมริกา ในทางตรงกันข้าม ความชุกและความเร็วในการเปลี่ยนผ่านของสามเหลี่ยมปากแม่น้ำ SARS-CoV-2 มีความแตกต่างกันเล็กน้อย ซึ่งแสดงให้เห็นการเปลี่ยนแปลงที่สมบูรณ์และรวดเร็วในสถานที่ส่วนใหญ่ ตัวแปร Omicron BA.4 และ BA.5 มีเส้นทางการเคลื่อนที่ที่แตกต่างกันในแง่ของความชันการเปลี่ยนผ่านสูงสุด เวลาสัมพัทธ์ในการเปลี่ยนผ่าน และความชุกสูงสุด ซึ่งบ่งชี้ถึงข้อได้เปรียบในการคัดเลือกของตัวแปร BA.5 ที่เหนือกว่า BA.4 ความลาดเอียงของการเปลี่ยนแปลงของตัวแปรย่อย Omicron ใหม่ (BA.2.75, BQ.1 และ XBB/XBB.1) อยู่ในระดับที่เสมอกับตัวแปรย่อย Omicron ก่อนหน้านี้

การวิเคราะห์การจัดกลุ่มแบบลำดับชั้นทำให้ได้กลุ่ม 7 กลุ่ม และบ่งชี้ว่าการเปลี่ยนตัวแปร Omicron ของ SARS-CoV-2 มีแนวโน้มที่จะคล้ายคลึงกันระหว่างคู่ตำแหน่งทางภูมิศาสตร์บางคู่มากกว่ากลุ่มอื่น ซึ่งแนะนำความเชื่อมโยงระหว่างพลวัตการเปลี่ยนแปลงและแอตทริบิวต์ตำแหน่งทางภูมิศาสตร์ นักวิจัยได้ตรวจสอบความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างจำนวนตัวแปรหมุนเวียนร่วม (เมื่อแต่ละตัวแปรมีความชุก 5%) และความลาดชันสูงสุด

มีความสัมพันธ์อย่างมีนัยสำคัญระหว่างจำนวนตัวแปรที่ไหลเวียนร่วมที่สูงขึ้นและความเร็วในการเปลี่ยนผ่านที่ต่ำกว่าสำหรับสายพันธุ์ SARS-CoV-2 จำนวนมาก รวมถึง Epsilon, Gamma, Delta และ Omicron (BA.1, BA.2 และ BA.5 ) ตัวแปร อัตราการฉีดวัคซีนที่สูงขึ้นนั้นสัมพันธ์กับการแพร่กระจายของสายพันธุ์ที่ช้าลงและหลังจากนั้นทั่วโลกก่อนที่จะเกิดสายพันธุ์ Delta และ Mu อย่างไรก็ตาม มีความสัมพันธ์ที่อ่อนแอระหว่างอัตราการฉีดวัคซีนและความเร็ว/เวลาของการเปลี่ยนถ่ายสำหรับสายพันธุ์ Omicron

อัตราการให้วัคซีนมีความสัมพันธ์อย่างมีนัยสำคัญกับไดนามิกการเปลี่ยนตัวแปรก่อนที่จะเกิด Delta/Mu แม้หลังจากปรับแอตทริบิวต์ตำแหน่งและการทดสอบหลายครั้งแล้ว ระยะเวลาที่สั้นลงตั้งแต่จุดสูงสุดของคลื่นครั้งล่าสุด อัตราผู้ป่วยโควิด-19 ก่อนหน้าที่สูงขึ้น และความหนาแน่นของประชากรที่ลดลงมีความสัมพันธ์กับการเปลี่ยนแปลงในภายหลัง ภูมิภาคที่มีประชากรอายุ 65 ปีขึ้นไปมีแนวโน้มที่จะมีความชุกของตัวแปรสูงสุดสูงกว่า

ข้อสรุป โดยสรุป นักวิจัยได้แสดงความสัมพันธ์ของพฤติกรรมของสายพันธุ์ SARS-CoV-2 ที่เกิดขึ้นใหม่กับจำนวนสายพันธุ์ที่หมุนเวียนร่วมกัน อัตราผู้ป่วย COVID-19 ก่อนหน้า และอัตราการฉีดวัคซีน มีความสัมพันธ์อย่างมากระหว่างอัตราการให้วัคซีนที่สูงขึ้นและพลวัตของการเปลี่ยนแปลงของตัวแปรก่อนการเปลี่ยนแปลงของตัวแปร Delta/Mu

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